ShowdownWire
November 3, 2026

Texas Senate

John Cornyn (R) · lost renomination · Cook PVI R+6 · last result 53.51% R

Toss-upShare card
Ken Paxton
CC BY-SA 4.0 · Gage Skidmore
R

Ken Paxton

40¢
Polymarket price
Wikipedia bio

Warren Kenneth Paxton Jr. is an American politician and lawyer who has served as the 51st attorney general of Texas since 2015. He is the Republican Party nominee in the 2026 United States Senate election in Texas.

Source: Ken Paxton
VS
James Talarico
CC BY-SA 4.0 · Antonioaesparza
D

James Talarico

62¢
Polymarket price
Wikipedia bio

James Dell Talarico ( TAL-ə-REE-koh, born May 17, 1989) is an American politician, Presbyterian seminarian, and educator serving since 2018 as a member of the Texas House of Representatives. He is the Democratic nominee in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas.

Source: James Talarico
62¢
Polymarket · James Talarico (D) · 62¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

John Cornyn (R) is the incumbent, lost renomination. The ratings consensus is Toss-up. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by James Talarico +2.6. Kalshi James Talarico 62¢ (mid). Polymarket James Talarico 62¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 19.4 points smaller than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+13.7. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+5.6. TALARICO, JAMES leads the stored FEC receipts at $128,772,835.

Polling average

  • Ken Paxton (R)46%
  • James Talarico (D)48.6%

mean of 6 published aggregator averages, equal-weighted. The Wikipedia 'Average' row is not included, so this is not a double count. Undecided is left as published and is not allocated.

Polling averageas of October 13, 2026

Published aggregator averages

Ratings

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 19, 7:30 PM EDT
PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 7:30 PM EDT

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢
KalshiJames Talarico 62¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 694 hours
PolymarketJames Talarico 62¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 690 hours
KalshiKen Paxton 39¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· hourly pull · 4 hours
PolymarketKen Paxton 39¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· hourly pull · 4 hours
Marker Oct 16, 8:00 AM EDT · CBS News / YouGov field ended
Marker Oct 14, 8:00 AM EDT · InsiderAdvantage (R) field ended
Marker Oct 14, 8:00 AM EDT · University of Houston field ended
Marker Oct 14, 8:00 AM EDT · ActiVote field ended
Marker Oct 11, 8:00 AM EDT · Quantus Insights field ended
Marker Oct 11, 8:00 AM EDT · Marist University field ended
Marker Oct 5, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 6, 2026
Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 15, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

  • TALARICO, JAMES
    DEMOCRATIC PARTY · raised $128,772,835 · cash $14,594,232
    Through 2026-09-30 · carried from the previous snapshot
  • PAXTON, WARREN KENNETH JR.
    REPUBLICAN PARTY · raised $19,497,810 · cash $4,925,105
    Through 2026-09-30 · carried from the previous snapshot
  • CORNYN, JOHN SEN
    REPUBLICAN PARTY · raised $14,265,248 · cash $495,970
    Through 2026-09-30 · carried from the previous snapshot
  • CROCKETT, JASMINE
    DEMOCRATIC PARTY · raised $11,096,966 · cash $0
    Through 2026-08-13 · carried from the previous snapshot

Recent polls

Table via Wikipedia.

Latest news

What changed

No move recorded since the baseline snapshot.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

· snapshot Oct 19, 7:23 PM EDT · mode live

Texas Senate · ShowdownWire