Wisconsin 3

Derrick Van Orden (R) · Cook PVI R+3 · last result 51.4% R

Derrick Van Orden

26¢

Wikipedia bio

Derrick Francis Van Orden is an American politician, actor, and retired United States Navy SEAL who has served as the U.S. representative for Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district since 2023. He is a member of the Republican Party.

Source: Derrick Van Orden

Polymarket · Rebecca Cooke (D) · 74¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Derrick Van Orden (R) is the incumbent. The ratings consensus is Lean D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 16, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Rebecca Cooke 75¢ (mid). Polymarket Rebecca Cooke 74¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+0.9. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+0.6.

House polling is not ingested in v1. This page is the ratings row only.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct. 16, 2026Tossup
Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 8, 2026Tossup
Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Tossup
Decision Desk HQOct. 17, 2026Likely D (flip)
RealClearPoliticsOct. 17, 2026Lean D (flip)
Silver BulletinSep. 10, 2026Lean D (flip)
FiftyPlusOneOct. 17, 2026Likely D (flip)
The EconomistOct. 19, 2026Lean D (flip)
Fox NewsOct. 13, 2026Tossup
Split TicketOct. 17, 2026Lean D (flip)

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 19, 10:31 PM EDT

Rebecca Cooke75¢mid · spread 1¢
Derrick Van Orden26¢mid · spread 2¢

PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 10:31 PM EDT

Rebecca Cooke (D)74¢mid · spread 2¢
Derrick Van Orden (R)26¢mid · spread 2¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 9:52 PM EDT

WindowSep 19, 10:00 PM EDT

KalshiRebecca Cooke 75¢ at Oct 19, 9:52 PM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 75 hours

PolymarketRebecca Cooke 74¢ at Oct 19, 9:52 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 693 hours

KalshiDerrick Van Orden 26¢ at Oct 19, 9:52 PM EDT· hourly pull · 7 hours

PolymarketDerrick Van Orden 26¢ at Oct 19, 9:52 PM EDT· hourly pull · 7 hours

Marker Oct 15, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 16, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 15, 2026

Marker Oct 7, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 8, 2026

Marker Oct 18, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 19, 2026

Marker Oct 16, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 17, 2026

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 13, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

What changed

No move recorded since the baseline snapshot.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Updated Oct 19, 10:23 PM EDT · snapshot Oct 19, 10:23 PM EDT · mode live