Iowa’s 1st District 2026

Name: 2026 U.S. House election, Iowa’s 1st District
Start: 2026-11-03
End: 2026-11-03
Location: Iowa’s 1st District

Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) · Cook PVI R+4 · last result 50.1% R

Lean DShare card

Mariannette Miller-Meeks

10¢

Polymarket price

Wikipedia bio

Mariannette Jane Miller-Meeks is an American physician and politician who has served as a U.S. representative from Iowa since 2021. Her district, numbered the 2nd from 2021 to 2023 and the 1st since 2023, includes most of Iowa's southeastern quadrant, including Davenport, Bettendorf, Burlington, and Iowa City.

Source: Mariannette Miller-Meeks

Polymarket · Christina Bohannan (D) · 91¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R) is the incumbent. The ratings consensus is Lean D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 16, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Christina Bohannan 90¢ (mid). Polymarket Christina Bohannan 91¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+13.2. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+8.2.

House polling is not ingested in v1. This page is the ratings row only.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct. 16, 2026Lean D (flip)
Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 8, 2026Lean D (flip)
Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Tilt D (flip)
Decision Desk HQOct. 17, 2026Likely D (flip)
RealClearPoliticsOct. 17, 2026Lean D (flip)
Silver BulletinSep. 10, 2026Lean D (flip)
FiftyPlusOneOct. 17, 2026Likely D (flip)
The EconomistOct. 19, 2026Likely D (flip)
Fox NewsOct. 13, 2026Lean D (flip)
Split TicketOct. 17, 2026Likely D (flip)

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 20, 10:15 AM EDT

Christina Bohannan90¢mid · spread 0¢
Mariannette Miller-Meeks10¢mid · spread 0¢

PolymarketPolymarketOct 20, 10:15 AM EDT

Christina Bohannan (D)91¢mid · spread 2¢
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)10¢mid · spread 1¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT

WindowSep 20, 10:00 AM EDT

KalshiChristina Bohannan 90¢ at Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 124 hours

PolymarketChristina Bohannan 91¢ at Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 695 hours

KalshiMariannette Miller-Meeks 10¢ at Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT· hourly pull · 21 hours

PolymarketMariannette Miller-Meeks 10¢ at Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT· hourly pull · 21 hours

Marker Oct 15, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 16, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 15, 2026

Marker Oct 7, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 8, 2026

Marker Oct 18, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 19, 2026

Marker Oct 16, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 17, 2026

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 13, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

What changed

market
Iowa 1: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Iowa 1: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Iowa 1: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Iowa 1: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Iowa 1: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.

Results

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Counts will come from civicAPI, which compiles official state election offices. A winner is shown only when civicAPI projects one, labelled as such.

Official results: Iowa election office ↗

Updated Oct 20, 10:10 AM EDT · snapshot Oct 20, 10:10 AM EDT · mode live