Wisconsin Governor 2026
Tony Evers (D) · retiring · Cook PVI EVEN · last result 51.15% D
David Crowley
Wikipedia bio
David Carl Crowley is an American politician who has served as the seventh executive of Milwaukee County since 2020. A member of the Democratic Party, he previously represented Wisconsin's 17th Assembly district, including the west side of Milwaukee, from 2017 to 2020.
Source: David Crowley (Wisconsin politician)
Tom Tiffany
Wikipedia bio
Thomas Patrick Tiffany is an American politician and businessman from Wisconsin. A member of the United States House of Representatives, he has represented Wisconsin's 7th congressional district since 2020.
Source: Tom TiffanyDesk notes
Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.
Tony Evers (D) is the incumbent, retiring. The ratings consensus is Toss-up. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by David Crowley +3.6. Kalshi David Crowley 80¢ (mid). Polymarket David Crowley 81¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 56.4 points smaller than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+0.9. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+0.6.
Polling average
- David Crowley (D)47.6%
- Tom Tiffany (R)44%
mean of 4 published aggregator averages, equal-weighted. The Wikipedia 'Average' row is not included, so this is not a double count. Undecided is left as published and is not allocated.
Published aggregator averages
- Decision Desk HQCrowley +3.6% · updated October 17, 2026
- FiftyPlusOneCrowley +3.6% · updated October 17, 2026
- RealClearPoliticsCrowley +3.5% · updated October 17, 2026
- Silver BulletinCrowley +3.6% · updated October 17, 2026
Ratings
- Cook Political ReportOct. 13, 2026Tossup
- Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 6, 2026Lean D
- Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Tossup
- Decision Desk HQOct. 15, 2026Lean D
- RealClearPoliticsOct. 12, 2026Tossup
- Silver BulletinOct. 13, 2026Lean D
- Fox NewsOct. 6, 2026Tossup
Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.
Markets
Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.
- David Crowley80¢mid · spread 1¢
- Tom Tiffany20¢mid · spread 1¢
- David Crowley (D)81¢mid · spread 1¢
- Tom Tiffany (R)21¢mid · spread 1¢
PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.
Price history
Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.
Money
n/a (governors file with states, not the FEC)
Recent polls
- YouGovSeptember 22 – October 9, 20261,715 (A) –David Crowley 46 · Tom Tiffany 42
- Z to A Research (D)September 28 – October 1, 2026662 (LV) –David Crowley 49 · Tom Tiffany 44
- Marquette UniversitySeptember 16–23, 2026692 (LV) ± 4.8%David Crowley 49 · Tom Tiffany 46
- Marquette UniversitySeptember 16–23, 2026843 (RV) ± 4.3%David Crowley 46 · Tom Tiffany 45
- Marquette UniversityAugust 12–20, 2026738 (LV) ± 4.5%David Crowley 49 · Tom Tiffany 44
- Marquette UniversityAugust 12–20, 2026891 (RV) ± 4.0%David Crowley 44 · Tom Tiffany 44
Table via Wikipedia.
What changed
No move recorded since the baseline snapshot.
Results
Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.
Counts will come from civicAPI, which compiles official state election offices. A winner is shown only when civicAPI projects one, labelled as such.
· snapshot Oct 20, 10:10 AM EDT · mode live