Kentucky Senate

Mitch McConnell (R) · retiring · Cook PVI R+15 · last result 57.76% R

Republican

Andy Barr

97¢

Wikipedia bio

Garland Hale "Andy" Barr IV is an American attorney and politician serving as the U.S. representative for Kentucky's 6th congressional district since 2013. Previously, he served in the administration of Kentucky governor Ernie Fletcher.

Source: Andy Barr

Democratic

Charles Booker

3¢

Polymarket price

Wikipedia bio

Charles Booker Jr. is an American politician who served from 2019 to 2021 as the Kentucky state representative for the 43rd House district. He is the Democratic nominee for the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kentucky.

Source: Charles Booker (American politician)

No freely licensed photo on Wikimedia Commons.

Independent

Christopher Campbell

Polymarket · Andy Barr (R) · 97¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Mitch McConnell (R) is the incumbent, retiring. The ratings consensus is Safe R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Andy Barr 97¢ (mid). Polymarket Andy Barr 97¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+30.5. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+25.9.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct 6, 2026Solid R
Sabato's Crystal BallOct 14, 2026Safe R
Inside ElectionsOct 15, 2026Solid R
Decision Desk HQOct 15, 2026Safe R
RealClearPoliticsOct 12, 2026Solid R
Silver BulletinOct 15, 2026Solid R
FiftyPlusOneOct 17, 2026Safe R
The EconomistOct 15, 2026Safe R
Fox NewsOct 13, 2026Solid R
Split TicketOct 18, 2026Safe R

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 19, 7:32 PM EDT

Andy Barr97¢mid · spread 0¢
Charles Booker3¢mid · spread 0¢

PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 7:32 PM EDT

Andy Barr (R)97¢mid · spread 0¢
Charles Booker (D)3¢mid · spread 0¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT

WindowSep 19, 8:00 PM EDT

KalshiAndy Barr 97¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 86 hours

PolymarketAndy Barr 97¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 692 hours

KalshiCharles Booker 3¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· hourly pull · 4 hours

PolymarketCharles Booker 3¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· hourly pull · 4 hours

Marker Oct 5, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 6, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 15, 2026

Marker Oct 16, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 17, 2026

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 13, 2026

Marker Oct 11, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 12, 2026

Marker Oct 13, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 14, 2026

Marker Oct 17, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 18, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

What changed

market
Kentucky Senate: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Kentucky Senate: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Kentucky Senate: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Kentucky Senate: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Updated Oct 19, 7:23 PM EDT · snapshot Oct 19, 7:23 PM EDT · mode live