Oklahoma Senate

Alan Armstrong · retiring · Cook PVI R+17 · last result Appointed (2026)

Republican

Kevin Hern

97¢

Wikipedia bio

Kevin Ray Hern is an American politician and businessman from Oklahoma. A Republican, he has been a member of the United States House of Representatives for Oklahoma's 1st congressional district since 2018.

Source: Kevin Hern

No freely licensed photo on Wikimedia Commons.

Independent

Ron Meinhardt

No freely licensed photo on Wikimedia Commons.

Independent

Curtis Stinnett

No freely licensed photo on Wikimedia Commons.

Democratic

N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas

2¢

Polymarket price

No freely licensed photo on Wikimedia Commons.

Libertarian

Sevier White

Polymarket · Kevin Hern (R) · 97¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Alan Armstrong is the incumbent, retiring. The ratings consensus is Safe R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Kevin Hern 97¢ (mid). Polymarket Kevin Hern 97¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+34.3. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+33.1.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct 6, 2026Solid R
Sabato's Crystal BallOct 14, 2026Safe R
Inside ElectionsOct 15, 2026Solid R
Decision Desk HQOct 15, 2026Safe R
RealClearPoliticsOct 12, 2026Solid R
Silver BulletinOct 15, 2026Solid R
FiftyPlusOneOct 17, 2026Safe R
The EconomistOct 15, 2026Safe R
Fox NewsOct 13, 2026Solid R
Split TicketOct 18, 2026Safe R

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 19, 7:30 PM EDT

Kevin Hern97¢mid · spread 1¢
N’Kiyla Thomas3¢mid · spread 0¢

PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 7:30 PM EDT

Kevin Hern (R)97¢mid · spread 1¢
N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas (D)2¢mid · spread 1¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT

WindowSep 19, 8:00 PM EDT

KalshiKevin Hern 97¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 48 hours

PolymarketKevin Hern 97¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 690 hours

KalshiN’Kiyla Thomas 3¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· hourly pull · 4 hours

PolymarketN’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas 2¢ at Oct 19, 7:18 PM EDT· hourly pull · 4 hours

Marker Oct 5, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 6, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 15, 2026

Marker Oct 16, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 17, 2026

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 13, 2026

Marker Oct 11, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 12, 2026

Marker Oct 13, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 14, 2026

Marker Oct 17, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 18, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

Latest news

The Senate map driving Trump’s late-stage travel blitzThe Hill — Campaign ·

What changed

market
Oklahoma Senate: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Oklahoma Senate: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Oklahoma Senate: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Oklahoma Senate: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Updated Oct 19, 7:23 PM EDT · snapshot Oct 19, 7:23 PM EDT · mode live