Arkansas Senate 2026

Name: 2026 Arkansas U.S. Senate election
Start: 2026-11-03
End: 2026-11-03
Location: Arkansas

Tom Cotton (R) · running · Cook PVI R+15 · last result 66.53% R

Safe RShare card

Republican

Tom Cotton

95¢

Polymarket price

Wikipedia bio

Thomas Bryant Cotton is an American politician and former Army officer serving since 2015 as the junior United States senator from Arkansas. From 2013 to 2015 he served in the U.S. House of Representatives, representing Arkansas's 4th congressional district.

Source: Tom Cotton

Democratic

Hallie Shoffner

5¢

Polymarket price

Wikipedia bio

Hallie Shoffner is an American farmer and political candidate. She previously managed her family's rice and soybean farm, a seed company, and founded an agricultural food hub.

Source: Hallie Shoffner

No freely licensed photo on Wikimedia Commons.

Libertarian

Jeff Wadlin

Polymarket · Tom Cotton (R) · 95¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Tom Cotton (R) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Safe R. Cook’s cell is dated Oct 6, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Tom Cotton 95¢ (mid). Polymarket Tom Cotton 95¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+30.6. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was R+27.6.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct 6, 2026Solid R
Sabato's Crystal BallOct 14, 2026Safe R
Inside ElectionsOct 15, 2026Solid R
Decision Desk HQOct 19, 2026Safe R
RealClearPoliticsOct 12, 2026Solid R
Silver BulletinOct 19, 2026Solid R
FiftyPlusOneOct 19, 2026Safe R
The EconomistOct 19, 2026Likely R
Fox NewsOct 13, 2026Solid R
Split TicketOct 19, 2026Safe R

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 20, 10:14 AM EDT

Tom Cotton95¢mid · spread 1¢
Hallie Shoffner5¢mid · spread 1¢

PolymarketPolymarketOct 20, 10:14 AM EDT

Tom Cotton (R)95¢mid · spread 2¢
Hallie Shoffner (D)5¢mid · spread 1¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT

WindowSep 20, 10:00 AM EDT

KalshiTom Cotton 95¢ at Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 186 hours

PolymarketTom Cotton 95¢ at Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 681 hours

KalshiHallie Shoffner 5¢ at Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT· hourly pull · 21 hours

PolymarketHallie Shoffner 5¢ at Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT· hourly pull · 21 hours

Marker Oct 5, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 6, 2026

Marker Oct 18, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 19, 2026

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 13, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 15, 2026

Marker Oct 11, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 12, 2026

Marker Oct 13, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct 14, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

What changed

market
Arkansas Senate: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Arkansas Senate: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Arkansas Senate: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Arkansas Senate: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.

Results

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Counts will come from civicAPI, which compiles official state election offices. A winner is shown only when civicAPI projects one, labelled as such.

Official results: Arkansas election office ↗

Updated Oct 20, 10:10 AM EDT · snapshot Oct 20, 10:10 AM EDT · mode live