ShowdownWire
November 3, 2026

Oregon Governor 2026

Tina Kotek (D) · running · Cook PVI D+8 · last result 46.96% D

Lean DShare card
Tina Kotek
Public domain · Tony Miller
D

Tina Kotek

83¢
Polymarket price
Wikipedia bio

Christine "Tina" Kotek is an American politician who has served as the 39th governor of Oregon since 2023. A member of the Democratic Party, Kotek served from 2007 to 2022 as a member of the Oregon House of Representatives from the 44th district and from 2013 to 2022 as speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives.

Source: Tina Kotek
VS
Christine Drazan
CC BY-SA 2.0 · Oregon State University
R

Christine Drazan

18¢
Polymarket price
Wikipedia bio

Christine Renee Drazan is an American politician who has served in the Oregon State Senate since 2025 in the 26th district as a member of the Republican Party. Prior to her tenure in the state senate she was a member of the Oregon House of Representatives from the 39th and 51st districts.

Source: Christine Drazan
83¢
Polymarket · Tina Kotek (D) · 83¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Tina Kotek (D) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Lean D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. The polling average is led by Tina Kotek +2.0. Kalshi Tina Kotek 82¢ (mid). Polymarket Tina Kotek 83¢ (mid). The poll’s Democratic edge is 63.0 points smaller than the market’s. The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+14.3. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+16.1.

Polling average

  • Tina Kotek (D)45.9%
  • Christine Drazan (R)43.9%

mean of 1 published aggregator averages, equal-weighted. The Wikipedia 'Average' row is not included, so this is not a double count. Undecided is left as published and is not allocated.

Polling averageas of October 8, 2026

Published aggregator averages

Ratings

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 20, 10:18 AM EDT
PolymarketPolymarketOct 20, 10:18 AM EDT

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT
0¢25¢50¢75¢100¢
KalshiTina Kotek 82¢ at Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 246 hours
PolymarketTina Kotek 83¢ at Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 693 hours
KalshiChristine Drazan 19¢ at Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT· hourly pull · 21 hours
PolymarketChristine Drazan 18¢ at Oct 20, 9:44 AM EDT· hourly pull · 21 hours
Marker Oct 4, 8:00 AM EDT · GBAO (D) field ended
Marker Oct 1, 8:00 AM EDT · DHM Research field ended
Marker Sep 27, 8:00 AM EDT · DHM Research field ended
Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 13, 2026
Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 15, 2026
Marker Oct 5, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 6, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

n/a (governors file with states, not the FEC)

Recent polls

Table via Wikipedia.

What changed

No move recorded since the baseline snapshot.

Results

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Counts will come from civicAPI, which compiles official state election offices. A winner is shown only when civicAPI projects one, labelled as such.

Official results: Oregon election office ↗

· snapshot Oct 20, 10:10 AM EDT · mode live

2026 Oregon Governor Race: Polls, Ratings & Odds | ShowdownWire