Pennsylvania Governor

Josh Shapiro (D) · running · Cook PVI R+1 · last result 56.49% D

Republican

Stacy Garrity

3¢

Wikipedia bio

Stacy L. Garrity is an American politician, businesswoman, and former United States Army Reserve officer who has served as the 79th treasurer of Pennsylvania since 2021.

Source: Stacy Garrity

No freely licensed photo on Wikimedia Commons.

Libertarian

Ken Krawchuk

Democratic

Josh Shapiro

97¢

Polymarket price

Wikipedia bio

Joshua David Shapiro is an American politician and lawyer serving since 2023 as the 48th governor of Pennsylvania. A member of the Democratic Party, he was the attorney general of Pennsylvania from 2017 to 2023 and served on the Montgomery County Board of Commissioners from 2012 to 2017.

Source: Josh Shapiro

Polymarket · Josh Shapiro (D) · 97¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Josh Shapiro (D) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Safe D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Josh Shapiro 97¢ (mid). Polymarket Josh Shapiro 97¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was R+1.7. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+1.2.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct. 13, 2026Solid D
Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 6, 2026Safe D
Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Solid D
Decision Desk HQOct. 15, 2026Safe D
RealClearPoliticsOct. 12, 2026Solid D
Silver BulletinOct. 13, 2026Solid D
Fox NewsOct. 6, 2026Solid D

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 19, 8:35 PM EDT

Josh Shapiro97¢mid · spread 1¢
Stacy Garrity4¢mid · spread 0¢

PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 8:35 PM EDT

Josh Shapiro (D)97¢mid · spread 1¢
Stacy Garrity (R)3¢mid · spread 0¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT

WindowSep 19, 9:00 PM EDT

KalshiJosh Shapiro 96¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 87 hours

PolymarketJosh Shapiro 97¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 678 hours

KalshiStacy Garrity 4¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· hourly pull · 5 hours

PolymarketStacy Garrity 3¢ at Oct 19, 8:11 PM EDT· hourly pull · 5 hours

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 13, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 15, 2026

Marker Oct 5, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 6, 2026

Marker Oct 11, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 12, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

What changed

market
Pennsylvania Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Pennsylvania Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Pennsylvania Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Pennsylvania Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
Pennsylvania Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Updated Oct 19, 8:23 PM EDT · snapshot Oct 19, 8:23 PM EDT · mode live