New York 17

Mike Lawler (R) · Cook PVI D+1 · last result 52.2% R

Mike Lawler

41¢

Wikipedia bio

Michael Vincent Lawler is an American politician serving as the U.S. representative for New York's 17th congressional district since 2023. The district includes all of Rockland County and Putnam County, as well as most of Northern Westchester County, and portions of southern Dutchess County.

Source: Mike Lawler

Polymarket · Cait Conley (D) · 61¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Mike Lawler (R) is the incumbent. The ratings consensus is Lean D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 16, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Cait Conley 61¢ (mid). Polymarket Cait Conley 61¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+12.6. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+23.1.

House polling is not ingested in v1. This page is the ratings row only.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct. 16, 2026Tossup
Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 8, 2026Tossup
Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Tossup
Decision Desk HQOct. 17, 2026Tossup
RealClearPoliticsOct. 17, 2026Tossup
Silver BulletinSep. 10, 2026Lean D (flip)
FiftyPlusOneOct. 17, 2026Likely D (flip)
The EconomistOct. 19, 2026Lean D (flip)
Fox NewsOct. 13, 2026Lean D (flip)
Split TicketOct. 17, 2026Lean D (flip)

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 19, 10:33 PM EDT

Cait Conley61¢mid · spread 1¢
Mike Lawler43¢mid · spread 1¢

PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 10:33 PM EDT

Cait Conley (D)61¢mid · spread 1¢
Mike Lawler (R)41¢mid · spread 1¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 9:52 PM EDT

WindowSep 19, 10:00 PM EDT

KalshiCait Conley 61¢ at Oct 19, 9:52 PM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 239 hours

PolymarketCait Conley 61¢ at Oct 19, 9:52 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 688 hours

KalshiMike Lawler 40¢ at Oct 19, 9:52 PM EDT· hourly pull · 7 hours

PolymarketMike Lawler 41¢ at Oct 19, 9:52 PM EDT· hourly pull · 7 hours

Marker Oct 15, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 16, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 15, 2026

Marker Oct 7, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 8, 2026

Marker Oct 18, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 19, 2026

Marker Oct 16, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 17, 2026

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 13, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

What changed

No move recorded since the baseline snapshot.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Updated Oct 19, 10:23 PM EDT · snapshot Oct 19, 10:23 PM EDT · mode live