New York Governor

Kathy Hochul (D) · running · Cook PVI D+8 · last result 53.12% D

Republican

Bruce Blakeman

5¢

Wikipedia bio

Bruce Arthur Blakeman is an American attorney and politician currently serving as the 10th county executive of Nassau County, New York. A Republican, Blakeman was first elected in 2021, defeating Democratic incumbent Laura Curran and becoming the county's first Jewish county executive.

Source: Bruce Blakeman

Democratic

Kathy Hochul

95¢

Polymarket price

Wikipedia bio

Kathleen Mary Hochul is an American politician and lawyer who has served since 2021 as the 57th governor of New York. A member of the Democratic Party, she is New York's first female governor.

Source: Kathy Hochul

Polymarket · Kathy Hochul (D) · 95¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Kathy Hochul (D) is the incumbent, running. The ratings consensus is Safe D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 13, 2026. 7 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Kathy Hochul 94¢ (mid). Polymarket Kathy Hochul 95¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+12.6. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+23.1.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct. 13, 2026Solid D
Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 6, 2026Safe D
Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Likely D
Decision Desk HQOct. 15, 2026Likely D
RealClearPoliticsOct. 12, 2026Solid D
Silver BulletinOct. 13, 2026Solid D
Fox NewsOct. 6, 2026Solid D

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 19, 9:38 PM EDT

Kathy Hochul94¢mid · spread 0¢
Bruce Blakeman7¢mid · spread 1¢

PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 9:38 PM EDT

Kathy Hochul (D)95¢mid · spread 0¢
Bruce Blakeman (R)5¢mid · spread 0¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT

WindowSep 19, 10:00 PM EDT

KalshiKathy Hochul 94¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 304 hours

PolymarketKathy Hochul 95¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 693 hours

KalshiBruce Blakeman 7¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· hourly pull · 6 hours

PolymarketBruce Blakeman 5¢ at Oct 19, 9:01 PM EDT· hourly pull · 6 hours

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 13, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 15, 2026

Marker Oct 5, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 6, 2026

Marker Oct 11, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 12, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

What changed

market
New York Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
New York Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
New York Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
New York Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
New York Governor: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Updated Oct 19, 9:23 PM EDT · snapshot Oct 19, 9:23 PM EDT · mode live