New York 4

Laura Gillen (D) · Cook PVI D+2 · last result 51.1% D

Laura Gillen

93¢

Wikipedia bio

Laura Anne Gillen is an American politician and attorney serving as the U.S. representative for New York's 4th congressional district since 2025. A member of the Democratic Party, she previously served as the town supervisor of Hempstead, New York.

Source: Laura Gillen

Polymarket · Laura Gillen (D) · 93¢. The contract price, not a forecast model.

Desk notes

Generated from the sourced figures on this page. Not a separate report.

Laura Gillen (D) is the incumbent. The ratings consensus is Likely D. Cook’s cell is dated Oct. 16, 2026. 10 forecaster cells are stored. Kalshi Laura Gillen 94¢ (mid). Polymarket Laura Gillen 93¢ (mid). The 2024 presidential margin in this state was D+12.6. The 2020 presidential margin in this state was D+23.1.

House polling is not ingested in v1. This page is the ratings row only.

Polling average

No polling average for this race. That is an empty state, not a tie.

Ratings

Cook Political ReportOct. 16, 2026Likely D
Sabato's Crystal BallOct. 8, 2026Lean D
Inside ElectionsOct. 15, 2026Tilt D
Decision Desk HQOct. 17, 2026Likely D
RealClearPoliticsOct. 17, 2026Solid D
Silver BulletinSep. 10, 2026Solid D
FiftyPlusOneOct. 17, 2026Safe D
The EconomistOct. 19, 2026Safe D
Fox NewsOct. 13, 2026Likely D
Split TicketOct. 17, 2026Safe D

Quoted from the Wikipedia predictions table, not scraped from the raters.

Markets

Raw yes-prices. Not vig-adjusted. Contracts under 1¢ are omitted.

KalshiKalshiOct 19, 10:31 PM EDT

Laura Gillen94¢mid · spread 0¢
Jeanine Driscoll7¢mid · spread 1¢

PolymarketPolymarketOct 19, 10:31 PM EDT

Laura Gillen (D)93¢mid · spread 2¢
Jeanine Driscoll (R)6¢mid · spread 1¢

PredictIt is off. Its terms limit the feed to non-commercial use.

Price history

through Oct 19, 9:52 PM EDT

WindowSep 19, 10:00 PM EDT

KalshiLaura Gillen 94¢ at Oct 19, 9:52 PM EDT· Kalshi public candlesticks · 36 hours

PolymarketLaura Gillen 93¢ at Oct 19, 9:52 PM EDT· Polymarket CLOB prices-history · 693 hours

KalshiJeanine Driscoll 7¢ at Oct 19, 9:52 PM EDT· hourly pull · 7 hours

PolymarketJeanine Driscoll 7¢ at Oct 19, 9:52 PM EDT· hourly pull · 7 hours

Marker Oct 15, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 16, 2026

Marker Oct 14, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 15, 2026

Marker Oct 7, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 8, 2026

Marker Oct 18, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 19, 2026

Marker Oct 16, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 17, 2026

Marker Oct 12, 8:00 PM EDT · Rating dated Oct. 13, 2026

Scale is fixed at 0–100¢. Hourly closes. A dashed line is a rating date or a poll end date stored on this race. Times are US Eastern.

Money

No FEC snapshot for this race.

Recent polls

No individual polls in this snapshot.

What changed

market
New York 4: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
New York 4: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
New York 4: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
New York 4: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.
market
New York 4: the stored prices were compared and no contract moved by a full cent.

Results

Official results are not being treated as returns yet. Election Day is November 3, 2026.

Results appear here once official returns start on election night, November 3, 2026.

Updated Oct 19, 10:23 PM EDT · snapshot Oct 19, 10:23 PM EDT · mode live